DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ZOL Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
Clockwerk
DuBu · 2 games
Gyrocopter
JaCkky · 2 games
ZOL Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
273 picks · 447 bans
Phoenix
248 picks · 392 bans
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 334 bans
Muerta
226 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 204 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 492 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% ZOL Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
Bleed Esports 67%ZOL Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 36:20.
Game 2prediction correct21:3
Bleed Esports 67%ZOL Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 25:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 67%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2