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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 1:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Among Uswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 8 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jing · 7 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 7 games
57%
Sven
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Skem · 5 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Mac · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 5 games
60%

Among Us

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
273 picks · 447 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
248 picks · 392 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 334 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
226 picks · 317 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 204 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 492 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:22
Geek Fam 82%Among Us 18%
The model gave 82% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Among Us in 37:50.
Game 2prediction correct38:22
Geek Fam 82%Among Us 18%
The model gave 82% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 49:45.
Game 3prediction missed9:21
Geek Fam 82%Among Us 18%
The model gave 82% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Among Us in 46:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 82%
Series resultAmong Us 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3