DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blue pikachuloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TiltedBoyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blue pikachu
Phoenixoften banned
Alren · 1 game
TiltedBoys
Dark Willow
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
273 picks · 447 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 392 bans
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 331 bans
Muerta
226 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 204 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Nature's Prophet
196 picks · 492 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Blue pikachu 38%TiltedBoys 62%
The model gave 62% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Game 2prediction correct
Blue pikachu 38%TiltedBoys 62%
The model gave 62% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 62%
Series resultTiltedBoys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2