DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Blue pikachuwin 1:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MMx_vrgzloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blue pikachu
Phoenixoften banned
Alren · 1 game
Mx_vrgz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
273 picks · 447 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 392 bans
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 331 bans
Muerta
226 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 204 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Nature's Prophet
196 picks · 492 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Mx_vrgz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Mx_vrgz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Blue pikachu 39%Mx_vrgz 61%
The model gave 61% on Mx_vrgz — the game was taken by Blue pikachu.
Model check result
Model favoriteMx_vrgz · 61%
Series resultBlue pikachu 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1