BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 15 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
Snapfire
Armel · 11 games
Batridersignature
yamich · 10 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
Dark Seersignature
Fbz · 10 games
KZ TEAM
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
Rubick
dEsire · 16 games
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 14 games
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
272 picks · 447 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 392 bans
Centaur Warrunner
241 picks · 330 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
217 picks · 204 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 492 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:13
Team Secret 56%KZ TEAM 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidCrystallis
PudgeOtaker
Primal BeastBOOM
RazorSkyLark
JakiroPuppey
InvokerSupream^
LionEkki
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
50% · 163 games
TuskAstral
Game 2prediction correct45:25
Team Secret 54%KZ TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 51:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingCrystallis
Ember SpiritSupream^
TidehunterBOOM
Faceless VoidOtaker
BatriderPuppey
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
GrimstrokeEkki
Nature's ProphetSsaSpartan
52% · 86 games
MuertaAstral
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 60%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2