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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 1:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team NextUploss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 8 games
13%

Team NextUp

Juggernaut
Juggernaut
7jesu · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 2 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
jesv · 2 games
100%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Mirage · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 1 game
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Petushara · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
272 picks · 447 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
246 picks · 390 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
241 picks · 327 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 204 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 489 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Team NextUp
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Team NextUp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:24
Yellow Submarine 40%Team NextUp 60%
The model gave 60% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 52:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam NextUp · 60%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1