DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 0:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Rune Eaterswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
Shadow Demon
JANTER · 1 game
Rune Eaters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
272 picks · 447 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 390 bans
Centaur Warrunner
241 picks · 326 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 204 bans
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 487 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:31
Night Pulse 52%Rune Eaters 48%
The model gave 52% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 25:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritAskold
LunaHollowness
55% · 49 games
Death ProphetEthereal
45% · 84 games
Tuskani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 52%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1