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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 1:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Doom
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Lowskill · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
100%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
Copy · 1 game
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
100%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 1 game
100%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
100%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 17 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 445 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
244 picks · 387 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
237 picks · 320 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
215 picks · 203 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
194 picks · 368 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
192 picks · 484 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Ninja Penguins 51%MarsBet Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 36:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 51%
Series resultNinja Penguins 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1