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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winter Bearwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
GH · 5 games
60%
Chen
Chenoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 4 games
50%

Winter Bear

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nagato · 2 games
0%
Bane
Bane
Nagato · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
267 picks · 444 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
243 picks · 387 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
236 picks · 317 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
215 picks · 203 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
194 picks · 368 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
192 picks · 481 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
Nigma Galaxy 57%Winter Bear 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMiracle-
44% · 39 games55% · 77 games
GrimstrokeJeezy
Grimstroke
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
60% · 7 games53% · 54 games
Vengeful SpiritStoic
Vengeful Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGhost
46% · 56 games
Techies
TechiesKuroKy
48% · 15 games
Marci
MarcirmN-
42% · 14 games
Game 2prediction correct29:11
Nigma Galaxy 59%Winter Bear 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
53% · 162 games52% · 198 games
PugnaJeezy
Pugna
Doom
DoomGhost
46% · 123 games49% · 287 games
SnapfireStoic
Snapfire
Slark
SlarkMiracle-
54% · 61 game
Chen
ChenrmN-
53% · 24 games
Phoenix
PhoenixKuroKy
43% · 115 games
Game 3prediction missed11:31
Nigma Galaxy 59%Winter Bear 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMiracle-
41% · 19 games58% · 92 games
LichStoic
Lich
Windranger
WindrangerSumaiL
39% · 60 games56% · 154 games
TinyJeezy
Tiny
Magnus
MagnusGhost
42% · 72 games
Chen
ChenrmN-
55% · 19 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKuroKy
44% · 76 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 66%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3