DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-Heroicloss 0:2series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-Heroic
Hoodwink
Thiolicor · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Yuma · 1 game
Clockwerk
Thiolicor · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
KJ · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Kezoften banned
Yuma · 1 game
Team Falcons
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 22 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
513 picks · 309 bans
Phoenix
484 picks · 576 bans
Tiny
434 picks · 352 bans
Jakiro
403 picks · 302 bans
Rubick
374 picks · 205 bans
Tusk
349 picks · 308 bans
Puck
338 picks · 850 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 848 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:50
ex-Heroic 26%Team Falcons 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 59:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawBatyuk
WindrangerSkiter
UrsaYuma
PangolierMalr1ne
Ember SpiritTaiLung
RazorATF
RubickKJ
LionCr1t-
ClockwerkThiolicor
LichSneyking
Game 2prediction correct16:53
ex-Heroic 25%Team Falcons 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYuma
LifestealerSkiter
Keeper of the LightTaiLung
SlardarMalr1ne
KunkkaBatyuk
UnderlordATF
HoodwinkThiolicor
RubickCr1t-
ClockwerkKJ
LichSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 90%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2