DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 1:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
UB Warriorloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
Clockwerk
DuBu · 2 games
Gyrocopter
JaCkky · 2 games
UB Warrior
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
267 picks · 444 bans
Phoenix
242 picks · 385 bans
Centaur Warrunner
235 picks · 316 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 203 bans
Treant Protector
194 picks · 368 bans
Nature's Prophet
191 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% UB Warrior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Bleed Esports 72%UB Warrior 28%
The model gave 72% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 72%
Series resultBleed Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1