DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionWDWhite Dragonswin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
White Dragons
Clockwerk
Yor · 1 game
Hoodwink
Hyko · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
hFn · 1 game
Lava
Batrideroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Phantom Assassin
payk · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 1 game
Alchemist
JP · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
Leostyle · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Demon · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
266 picks · 444 bans
Phoenix
242 picks · 385 bans
Centaur Warrunner
235 picks · 315 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 203 bans
Treant Protector
194 picks · 367 bans
Nature's Prophet
191 picks · 477 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength54% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
White Dragons 38%Lava 62%
The model gave 62% on Lava — the game was taken by White Dragons.
Game 2prediction missed
White Dragons 38%Lava 62%
The model gave 62% on Lava — the game was taken by White Dragons.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 62%
Series resultWhite Dragons 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2