DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PlayTimewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 38 games
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 25 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
PlayTime
Tusk
DJ · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 10 games
Kezoften banned
Wits · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kuku · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
510 picks · 306 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 576 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 354 bans
Jakiro
404 picks · 305 bans
Rubick
369 picks · 201 bans
Tusk
351 picks · 312 bans
Puck
340 picks · 847 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 843 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:31
Nigma Galaxy 57%PlayTime 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by PlayTime in 54:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertarincyq
KunkkaDarkMago
PangolierNo!ob
KezWits
PhoenixGH
DoomFrank
AxeDavai
GrimstrokeScofield
WindrangerOmaR
Winter WyvernElmisho
Game 2prediction missed10:35
Nigma Galaxy 58%PlayTime 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by PlayTime in 55:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladerincyq
NecrophosWits
LycanNo!ob
ViperDarkMago
AxeDavai
TidehunterFrank
Keeper of the LightGH
HoodwinkElmisho
RubickOmaR
Nyx AssassinScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 62%
Series resultPlayTime 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2