DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 30 games
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 26 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 26 games
Tusk
fy · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
Tundra Esports
Batridersignature
Ari · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 30 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 24 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
510 picks · 306 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 576 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 354 bans
Jakiro
404 picks · 305 bans
Rubick
369 picks · 201 bans
Tusk
351 picks · 312 bans
Puck
340 picks · 847 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 843 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:28
Xtreme Gaming 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 53:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Brewmaster33
Drow RangerAme
Ember Spiritbzm
DoomXxs
KezPure~
PhoenixxNova
TechiesWhitemon
Hoodwinkfy
RubickAri
Game 2prediction missed59:48
Xtreme Gaming 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:47:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BrewmasterXxs
Invokerbzm
KezAme
MuertaPure~
EnchantressxNova
Largo33
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
RubickAri
Techiesfy
LichWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2