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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team wkwkwkwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team wkwkwk

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Handsken · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Xepher · 1 game
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tiny
Stojkov · 1 game
100%
Visage
Visageoften banned
s4 · 1 game
100%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 15 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 15 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 12 games
25%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Daze · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 10 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 444 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
241 picks · 380 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
231 picks · 304 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
215 picks · 101 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
212 picks · 201 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
193 picks · 363 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
188 picks · 464 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Team wkwkwk
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team wkwkwk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:50
Team wkwkwk 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on Team wkwkwk — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckStojkov
59% · 114 games42% · 44 games
Pudgegotthejuice
Pudge
Abaddon
AbaddonSmiling Knight
40% · 37 games50% · 232 games
SnapfireNiku
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal Beasts4
56% · 166 games45% · 26 games
Night Stalkerpma
Night Stalker
Techies
TechiesXepher
53% · 183 games50% · 176 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHandsken
51% · 92 games45% · 114 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 2prediction correct43:28
Team wkwkwk 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on Team wkwkwk — the game was taken by Team wkwkwk in 50:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
58% · 143 games56% · 42 games
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
Troll Warlord
Death Prophet
Death ProphetStojkov
56% · 161 game47% · 220 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterXepher
50% · 73 games42% · 105 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Primal Beast
Primal Beasts4
51% · 246 games48% · 100 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Lion
LionHandsken
51% · 103 games45% · 259 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct30:20
Team wkwkwk 52%Natus Vincere Junior 48%
The model gave 52% on Team wkwkwk — the game was taken by Team wkwkwk in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
48% · 157 games52% · 137 games
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Faceless Void
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunners4
52% · 138 games45% · 324 games
SnapfireNiku
Snapfire
Windranger
WindrangerStojkov
45% · 111 games44% · 289 games
Doompma
Doom
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterXepher
62% · 80 games53% · 349 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
Rubick
RubickHandsken
50% · 655 games51% · 42 games
JakiroRiddys
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam wkwkwk · 51%
Series resultTeam wkwkwk 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3