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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Doom
Doomoften banned
Antares · 22 games
55%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 21 game
62%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 15 games
33%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 13 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 12 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
RAMZES666 · 12 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 12 games
50%

Kalmychata

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 443 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
241 picks · 379 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
229 picks · 302 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
215 picks · 101 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
212 picks · 199 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
192 picks · 361 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 520 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:24
9Pandas 62%Kalmychata 38%
The model gave 62% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDarkLord^
47% · 83 games49% · 126 games
Invokerhina
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
55% · 181 game53% · 192 games
Faceless Voidrincyq
Faceless Void
Doom
DoomAlberkaaa
52% · 96 games52% · 276 games
Treant ProtectorsmN
Treant Protector
Enchantress
EnchantressAntares
49% · 106 games
Batrider
BatriderSolo
42% · 128 games
Game 2prediction missed36:47
9Pandas 63%Kalmychata 37%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 47:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawAinkrad
46% · 77 games48% · 330 games
Storm Spirithina
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerDarkLord^
49% · 42 games47% · 59 games
Phantom Assassinrincyq
Phantom Assassin
Techies
TechiesAntares
47% · 90 games44% · 24 games
BanesmN
Bane
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
59% · 134 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSolo
60% · 70 games
Game 3prediction correct37:29
9Pandas 60%Kalmychata 40%
The model gave 60% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 46:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
50% · 85 games45% · 106 games
Lunarincyq
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawAinkrad
43% · 99 games55% · 269 games
Storm Spirithina
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
47% · 58 games51% · 41 game
BanesmN
Bane
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAntares
51% · 63 games
Batrider
BatriderSolo
59% · 111 games
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 74%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3