Asia Pacific Predator League 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
ZOL Esportsloss 0:1series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Execrationwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ZOL Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 7 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Palos · 6 games
Clockwerk
Shanks · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
Earthshaker
Bob · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 372 bans
Centaur Warrunner
225 picks · 296 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 198 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 360 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% ZOL Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ZOL Esports 26%Execration 74%
The model gave 74% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 74%
Series resultExecration 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1