DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 1:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:0
GZGuerreros Zzzloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Fly · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 7 games
Muertasignature
Arteezy · 7 games
Sven
Arteezy · 7 games
Guerreros Zzz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
260 picks · 438 bans
Phoenix
238 picks · 370 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
223 picks · 294 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Guerreros Zzz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:10
Shopify Rebellion 91%Guerreros Zzz 9%
The model gave 91% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 18:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 91%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1