DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nightshadewin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Alina Boysloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nightshade
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Lion
Kyzko · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
ani-san · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kyzko · 2 games
Alina Boys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
260 picks · 438 bans
Phoenix
238 picks · 370 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
223 picks · 292 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Alina Boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Alina Boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:18
Nightshade 50%Alina Boys 50%
The model gave 50% on Alina Boys — the game was taken by Nightshade in 26:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlina Boys · 50%
Series resultNightshade 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1