DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
ArcwardenProstiloss 0:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Kalmychatawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ArcwardenProsti
No games played over 6 months.
Kalmychata
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
259 picks · 437 bans
Phoenix
238 picks · 368 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
222 picks · 291 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% ArcwardenProsti
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ArcwardenProsti 49%Kalmychata 51%
The model gave 51% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 51%
Series resultKalmychata 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1