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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 1:0
5STARS Esportloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 9 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Aui_2000 · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Nine · 7 games
29%
Sven
Sven
Skiter · 7 games
43%

5STARS Esport

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 437 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
238 picks · 368 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
222 picks · 291 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:7
Tundra Esports 78%5STARS Esport 22%
The model gave 78% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 21:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperMinD_ContRoL
50% · 8 games57% · 87 games
GrimstrokeDelight
Grimstroke
Rubick
RubickTopson
34% · 31 game
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPure~
little data
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
41% · 13 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner9Class
49% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 93%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1