DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 1:0
FFlawlessloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 11 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Aui_2000 · 8 games
Shadow Demon
Nine · 7 games
Sven
Skiter · 7 games
Flawless
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
258 picks · 437 bans
Phoenix
238 picks · 366 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
221 picks · 290 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
210 picks · 196 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Tundra Esports 94%Flawless 6%
The model gave 94% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 18:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 94%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1