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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 1:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Lagoona · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Retsu · 2 games
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
dark · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
dark · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
meLes · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
0%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
258 picks · 436 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
238 picks · 365 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
221 picks · 290 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
210 picks · 196 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:4
Matreshka Team 51%Yellow Submarine 49%
The model gave 51% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 30:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 51%
Series resultMatreshka Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1