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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 1:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Level UPloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 16 games
38%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%

Level UP

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
86%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 13 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
62%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
42%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 9 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
258 picks · 436 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
238 picks · 365 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
221 picks · 290 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
210 picks · 196 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total61% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
KZ TEAM 39%Level UP 61%
The model gave 61% on Level UP — the game was taken by KZ TEAM.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 61%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1