DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darlengwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
500 Bananasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darleng
No games played over 6 months.
500 Bananas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
257 picks · 436 bans
Phoenix
235 picks · 365 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
220 picks · 288 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
210 picks · 196 bans
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Darleng
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Darleng
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:9
Darleng 69%500 Bananas 31%
The model gave 69% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 23:32.
Game 2prediction correct39:20
Darleng 69%500 Bananas 31%
The model gave 69% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 25:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarleng · 69%
Series resultDarleng 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2