DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
500 Bananaswin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
WDWashed Dogsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
500 Bananas
No games played over 6 months.
Washed Dogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
257 picks · 435 bans
Phoenix
233 picks · 363 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
218 picks · 285 bans
Tusk
210 picks · 196 bans
Dark Willow
209 picks · 99 bans
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 500 Bananas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% 500 Bananas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:39
500 Bananas 50%Washed Dogs 50%
The model gave 50% on 500 Bananas — the game was taken by 500 Bananas in 57:44.
Model check result
Model favorite500 Bananas · 50%
Series result500 Bananas 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1