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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Geek Famwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 10 games
70%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 10 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 8 games
75%

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 8 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jing · 7 games
71%
Sven
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 6 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Skem · 5 games
60%
Wraith King
Wraith King
Natsumi · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 433 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
231 picks · 360 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
216 picks · 284 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
210 picks · 195 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
207 picks · 99 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
184 picks · 517 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:5
Talon Esports 42%Geek Fam 58%
The model gave 58% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAkashi
51% · 53 games42% · 24 games
Lone DruidNatsumi
Lone Druid
Viper
ViperCHYuan
little data53% · 20 games
Bounty HunterMac
Bounty Hunter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWs
54% · 55 games54% · 88 games
LionJing
Lion
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJhocam
57% · 19 games32% · 17 games
AbaddonSkem
Abaddon
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPonyo
38% · 22 games
Game 2prediction correct12:33
Talon Esports 46%Geek Fam 54%
The model gave 54% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 39:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAkashi
54% · 79 games58% · 101 game
Monkey KingNatsumi
Monkey King
Puck
PuckCHYuan
47% · 91 game55% · 30 games
Lone DruidMac
Lone Druid
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
43% · 79 games37% · 145 games
SnapfireJing
Snapfire
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJhocam
68% · 23 games56% · 30 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterPonyo
45% · 34 games
Game 3prediction correct3:30
Talon Esports 45%Geek Fam 55%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAkashi
36% · 101 game47% · 55 games
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCHYuan
43% · 57 games57% · 100 games
KunkkaMac
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
50% · 164 games56% · 265 games
MiranaJing
Mirana
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJhocam
47% · 84 games58% · 53 games
GyrocopterSkem
Gyrocopter
Pugna
PugnaPonyo
51% · 67 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 58%
Series resultGeek Fam 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3