BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team NextUploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chimera Esports
Dark Willow
OneJey · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
Nande · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 1 game
Elder Titan
Chuvash · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
re1bl · 1 game
Iooften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Lion
OneJey · 1 game
Team NextUp
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 2 games
Ember Spirit
Mirage · 2 games
Juggernaut
7jesu · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Petushara · 1 game
Doomoften banned
forcemajor · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 1 game
Lion
jesv · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
255 picks · 433 bans
Phoenix
228 picks · 358 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
214 picks · 284 bans
Tusk
208 picks · 194 bans
Dark Willow
207 picks · 99 bans
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
184 picks · 513 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team NextUp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team NextUp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:13
Chimera Esports 46%Team NextUp 54%
The model gave 54% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkNande
Faceless Void7jesu
Puckre1bl
Queen of PainMirage
MagnusBb3px
RazorPetushara
ChenChuvash
Tuskforcemajor
LionOneJey
Enchantressjesv
Game 2prediction missed39:11
Chimera Esports 46%Team NextUp 54%
The model gave 54% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 28:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit BreakerBb3px
PuckMirage
Windrangerre1bl
Juggernaut7jesu
Faceless VoidNande
BroodmotherPetushara
Nature's ProphetOneJey
Tinyforcemajor
PhoenixChuvash
Crystal Maidenjesv
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam NextUp · 59%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2