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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 24 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 23 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 22 games
36%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 22 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
57%

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xm · 16 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 12 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xm · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 304 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
480 picks · 576 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 351 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
408 picks · 311 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
365 picks · 198 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 315 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 844 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
335 picks · 845 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:20
GamerLegion 41%Vici Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
50% · 283 games50% · 285 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerGhost
55% · 20 games53% · 61 game
Death ProphetXm
Death Prophet
Slardar
SlardarFayde
48% · 208 games51% · 329 games
BeastmasterFaith_bian
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixSpeeed
48% · 182 games45% · 162 games
ClockwerkXinQ
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
44% · 185 games63% · 41 game
Winter Wyverny`
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct15:37
GamerLegion 38%Vici Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 51:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidGhost
56% · 120 games42% · 288 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRCY
49% · 255 games46% · 181 game
Muertashiro
Muerta
Axe
AxeFayde
50% · 199 games52% · 289 games
BatriderFaith_bian
Batrider
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSpeeed
52% · 17 games51% · 110 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
51% · 376 games55% · 99 games
Treant Protectory`
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 70%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2