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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 50 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 48 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 47 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 43 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 37 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 33 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 33 games
76%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 22 games
55%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 304 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
480 picks · 576 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 351 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
408 picks · 311 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
365 picks · 198 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 315 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 844 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
335 picks · 845 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total52% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:43
Aurora Gaming 53%Team Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
50% · 107 games52% · 94 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWs
47% · 44 games52% · 194 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
48% · 180 games46% · 89 games
RazorATF
Razor
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
54% · 144 games44% · 44 games
LichSneyking
Lich
Rubick
RubickMira
49% · 107 games54% · 161 game
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed23:40
Aurora Gaming 51%Team Falcons 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNightfall
50% · 147 games51% · 126 games
LunaSkiter
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
48% · 174 games49% · 210 games
DoomATF
Doom
Mars
MarsWs
42% · 134 games58% · 286 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Rubick
RubickMira
47% · 168 games56% · 31 game
LichSneyking
Lich
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
47% · 209 games52% · 179 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 52%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2