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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PlayTimeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 30 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 26 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
75%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 10 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Wits · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Elmisho · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 305 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 575 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 353 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
409 picks · 314 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
364 picks · 197 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 316 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 846 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
335 picks · 848 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:19
Xtreme Gaming 60%PlayTime 40%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
56% · 27 games52% · 169 games
Shadow FiendWits
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
45% · 251 game48% · 96 games
ViperDarkMago
Viper
Axe
AxeXxs
48% · 157 games55% · 151 game
Primal BeastFrank
Primal Beast
Techies
Techiesfy
50% · 42 games50% · 205 games
RubickScofield
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
48% · 248 games57% · 104 games
Treant ProtectorElmisho
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct35:8
Xtreme Gaming 60%PlayTime 40%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
47% · 34 games54% · 411 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
47% · 406 games57% · 212 games
Monkey KingWits
Monkey King
Underlord
UnderlordXxs
49% · 208 games52% · 332 games
SlardarFrank
Slardar
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
55% · 423 games46% · 95 games
TechiesElmisho
Techies
Clockwerk
ClockwerkxNova
47% · 151 game44% · 172 games
Dark WillowScofield
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 70%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2