HULIGANI vs SIBE Team — prediction BDD2ЗК · Dota 2

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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO1

result vs prediction

HULIGANIwin 1:0

series probability

51%49%

probability at match start · final 1:0

SIBE Teamloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

No games played over 6 months.

SIBE Team

Brewmastersignature

klassnokruto · 12 games

67%

Grimstrokesignature

emptiness · 12 games

83%

Primal Beastsignature

klassnokruto · 12 games

67%

Pangoliersignature

erase · 9 games

78%

Phantom Assassinsignature

nesfeer · 9 games

67%

Rubick

emptiness · 9 games

33%

Treant Protectorsignature

Rein · 8 games

75%

Vengeful Spiritsignature

Rein · 8 games

75%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Grimstroke

251 picks · 426 bans

52%

Muerta

225 picks · 317 bans

50%

Phoenix

216 picks · 344 bans

50%

Tusk

204 picks · 190 bans

46%

Centaur Warrunner

202 picks · 274 bans

51%

Dark Willow

201 picks · 97 bans

53%

Treant Protector

188 picks · 358 bans

54%

Kunkka

179 picks · 508 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%

Hero pool strength58% SIBE Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total51% HULIGANI

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed30:18

HULIGANI 47%SIBE Team 53%

The model gave 53% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 38:01.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo