BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionWSWawitas Sagazesloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DDuBuwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wawitas Sagazes
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panda · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
Lumière · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
Necrophosoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panda · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
DuBu
Bristlebackoften banned
Speeed · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
DuBu · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Dazzleoften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
MSS · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
250 picks · 423 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Phoenix
216 picks · 339 bans
Centaur Warrunner
201 picks · 274 bans
Dark Willow
200 picks · 97 bans
Tusk
200 picks · 190 bans
Treant Protector
187 picks · 358 bans
Kunkka
177 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% DuBu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Wawitas Sagazes
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:37
Wawitas Sagazes 54%DuBu 46%
The model gave 54% on Wawitas Sagazes — the game was taken by DuBu in 1:00:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaLumière
LifestealerYamSun
KunkkaDarkMago
TimbersawSpeeed
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Storm SpiritRCY
BatriderGenek
Shadow DemonMSS
TuskMjz
Crystal MaidenDuBu
Game 2prediction correct21:5
Wawitas Sagazes 55%DuBu 45%
The model gave 55% on Wawitas Sagazes — the game was taken by Wawitas Sagazes in 23:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinLumière
DoomSpeeed
KunkkaDarkMago
Ember SpiritRCY
TidehunterOscar
Faceless VoidYamSun
Treant ProtectorMjz
LionMSS
Vengeful SpiritGenek
EnchantressDuBu
Game 3prediction missed34:28
Wawitas Sagazes 56%DuBu 44%
The model gave 56% on Wawitas Sagazes — the game was taken by DuBu in 54:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkLumière
MorphlingYamSun
Death ProphetOscar
BatriderRCY
TinyDarkMago
PudgeSpeeed
Monkey KingGenek
GyrocopterMSS
EnchantressMjz
Vengeful SpiritDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteWawitas Sagazes · 62%
Series resultDuBu 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3