BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 15 games
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 10 games
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Lion
Bignum · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
Level UP
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
Dragon Knight
Lorenof · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
OwnedMe · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
249 picks · 422 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Phoenix
215 picks · 332 bans
Dark Willow
200 picks · 97 bans
Tusk
200 picks · 184 bans
Centaur Warrunner
198 picks · 270 bans
Treant Protector
187 picks · 358 bans
Kunkka
177 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:38
MarsBet Team 46%Level UP 54%
The model gave 54% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 39:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidLukas
Naga SirenPanda
MarsMr. Luck
Storm SpiritBor@nija
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Death ProphetTaiga
Nature's ProphetLeBronDota
TinydEsire
RubickBignum
Game 2prediction missed30:9
MarsBet Team 48%Level UP 52%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 28:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaLukas
MorphlingPanda
PuckW1sh-
PangolierBor@nija
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
BatriderTaiga
TinyBignum
MagnusdEsire
Winter WyvernLeBronDota
Game 3prediction missed30:25
MarsBet Team 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageLukas
MorphlingPanda
Keeper of the LightW1sh-
MarsBor@nija
WindrangerMr. Luck
Death ProphetTaiga
TinyBignum
EarthshakerdEsire
PugnaLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 55%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3