DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 27 games
Tusk
rue · 24 games
Ringmaster
rue · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
Batridersignature
Collapse · 17 games
Vici Gaming
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 18 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
Tinysignature
Xm · 16 games
Jakiro
y` · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
Muertasignature
shiro · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
503 picks · 299 bans
Phoenix
478 picks · 570 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 344 bans
Jakiro
417 picks · 315 bans
Tusk
362 picks · 317 bans
Rubick
356 picks · 194 bans
Puck
341 picks · 839 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 842 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:18
Team Spirit 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainLarl
BristlebackFaith_bian
AlchemistYatoro
Kezshiro
Primal BeastCollapse
BeastmasterXm
Grimstrokerue
HoodwinkXinQ
Clockwerknot me
Shadow Demony`
Game 2prediction correct26:39
Team Spirit 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 58:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistYatoro
Windrangershiro
Queen of PainLarl
TimbersawFaith_bian
Legion CommanderCollapse
Ember SpiritXm
Enchantressrue
Silencery`
Hoodwinknot me
RubickXinQ
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 54%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2