ex-Heroic vs GamerLegion — prediction DS 29 · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3

result vs prediction

ex-Heroicwin 2:0

series probability

30%70%

probability at match start · final 2:0

GamerLegionloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ex-Heroic

No games played over 6 months.

GamerLegion

Tusksignature

Bignum · 24 games

67%

Chenoften banned

Speeed · 23 games

52%

Beastmasteroften banned

RCY · 22 games

36%

Shadow Demonoften banned

Bignum · 22 games

45%

Storm Spiritsignature

RCY · 22 games

64%

Warlock

Speeed · 22 games

41%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

Fayde · 21 game

52%

Jakiro

Speeed · 21 game

57%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

503 picks · 299 bans

56%

Phoenix

478 picks · 570 bans

51%

Tiny

436 picks · 344 bans

51%

Jakiro

417 picks · 315 bans

48%

Tusk

362 picks · 317 bans

55%

Rubick

356 picks · 194 bans

50%

Puck

341 picks · 839 bans

53%

Beastmaster

337 picks · 842 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%

Hero pool strength52% GamerLegion

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total70% GamerLegion

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed37:21

ex-Heroic 39%GamerLegion 61%

The model gave 61% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by ex-Heroic in 1:08:52.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo