Qhali vs Bulls — prediction BDD2ОК · Dota 2

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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Qhaliloss 0:2

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Bullswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Qhali

Ember Spirit

Robo-Z · 4 games

75%

Grimstrokeoften banned

Luis · 4 games

25%

Monkey Kingoften banned

MonHty · 4 games

75%

Visageoften banned

Hermit · 4 games

50%

Beastmasteroften banned

Hermit · 3 games

67%

Treant Protectoroften banned

Luis · 3 games

67%

Brewmasteroften banned

Hermit · 2 games

50%

Dawnbreakeroften banned

MonHty · 2 games

50%

Bulls

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Grimstroke

247 picks · 419 bans

52%

Muerta

225 picks · 317 bans

50%

Phoenix

213 picks · 325 bans

49%

Tusk

197 picks · 181 bans

46%

Dark Willow

195 picks · 97 bans

53%

Centaur Warrunner

194 picks · 267 bans

49%

Treant Protector

185 picks · 358 bans

53%

Kunkka

177 picks · 504 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%

Hero pool strength51% Qhali

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Qhali

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed15:21

Qhali 50%Bulls 50%

The model gave 50% on Qhali — the game was taken by Bulls in 39:35.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo