European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Ticklesloss 0:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tickles
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
Force · 16 games
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 10 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 10 games
Level UP
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
Keeper of the Light
swedenstrong · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 11 games
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
Dragon Knight
Lorenof · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
263 picks · 436 bans
Muerta
230 picks · 321 bans
Phoenix
219 picks · 324 bans
Dark Willow
208 picks · 106 bans
Tusk
203 picks · 181 bans
Centaur Warrunner
199 picks · 273 bans
Treant Protector
196 picks · 398 bans
Kunkka
184 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tickles
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:31
Team Tickles 66%Level UP 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckLorenof
Keeper of the LightBor@nija
WindrangerUlnit
MuertaFocus
TidehunterForce
PudgeMikSa`
EnchantressDukalis
TinyNARMAN
Game 2prediction missed15:35
Team Tickles 67%Level UP 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Level UP in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritLorenof
LinaFocus
GyrocopterUlnit
PangolierBor@nija
AxeForce
VisageMikSa`
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Nyx AssassinNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 75%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2