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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4win 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Klim Sani4

No games played over 6 months.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 19 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 16 games
81%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 15 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 11 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 10 games
70%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
265 picks · 436 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
231 picks · 325 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
219 picks · 326 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
212 picks · 113 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
202 picks · 276 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
202 picks · 181 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
199 picks · 404 bans
56%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 527 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
Klim Sani4 28%Team Tickles 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 36:31.
Game 2prediction correct41:28
Klim Sani4 28%Team Tickles 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 1:09:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 72%
Series resultKlim Sani4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2