European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Klim Sani4win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
Keeper of the Light
swedenstrong · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 9 games
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
269 picks · 437 bans
Muerta
235 picks · 326 bans
Phoenix
219 picks · 326 bans
Dark Willow
217 picks · 114 bans
Centaur Warrunner
203 picks · 277 bans
Tusk
202 picks · 181 bans
Treant Protector
201 picks · 406 bans
Kunkka
187 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Klim Sani4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:33
Level UP 46%Klim Sani4 54%
The model gave 54% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 32:09.
Game 2prediction correct
Level UP 46%Klim Sani4 54%
The model gave 54% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4.
Model check result
Model favoriteKlim Sani4 · 54%
Series resultKlim Sani4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2