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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 9 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Rein · 7 games
86%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 6 games
83%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
nesfeer · 6 games
83%

Level UP

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
85%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
swedenstrong · 12 games
42%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
274 picks · 443 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
237 picks · 326 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
229 picks · 114 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
223 picks · 332 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
210 picks · 427 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
205 picks · 179 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
202 picks · 272 bans
49%
Kunkka
Kunkka
199 picks · 538 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
SIBE Team 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 24:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistnesfeer
62% · 79 games46% · 121 game
UrsaFocus
Ursa
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightряф^^
55% · 117 games50% · 214 games
Storm SpiritBor@nija
Storm Spirit
Visage
Visageklassnokruto
58% · 52 games39% · 89 games
MarsMikSa`
Mars
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRein
52% · 110 games46% · 125 games
PhoenixdEsire
Phoenix
Tiny
Tinyemptiness
47% · 191 game
Game 2prediction missed
SIBE Team 59%Level UP 41%
The model gave 59% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 3prediction missed41:40
SIBE Team 55%Level UP 45%
The model gave 55% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Level UP in 45:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistряф^^
51% · 71 game48% · 145 games
Templar AssassinFocus
Templar Assassin
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidnesfeer
55% · 134 games54% · 135 games
Spirit BreakerMikSa`
Spirit Breaker
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerklassnokruto
60% · 18 games47% · 219 games
BatriderBor@nija
Batrider
Rubick
Rubickemptiness
40% · 309 games53% · 106 games
GrimstrokedEsire
Grimstroke
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRein
50% · 73 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 59%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3