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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
85%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 11 games
36%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 9 games
67%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
41%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
SsaSpartan · 13 games
62%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
275 picks · 441 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
237 picks · 327 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
233 picks · 114 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
225 picks · 332 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 430 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
207 picks · 179 bans
47%
Kunkka
Kunkka
203 picks · 538 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
200 picks · 270 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Level UP
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total51% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:36
Level UP 53%KZ TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 26:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerFocus
53% · 50 games47% · 96 games
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Leshrac
LeshracBor@nija
62% · 89 games39% · 55 games
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Batrider
BatriderCorrupted
50% · 223 games44% · 97 games
MagnusSkyLark
Magnus
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
63% · 95 games44% · 165 games
Nature's ProphetSsaSpartan
Nature's Prophet
40% · 44 games
MuertaAstral
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct46:31
Level UP 51%KZ TEAM 49%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 51:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistFocus
50% · 112 games46% · 99 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBor@nija
57% · 237 games49% · 100 games
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Doom
DoomCorrupted
47% · 262 games53% · 85 games
BroodmotherSkyLark
Broodmother
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
52% · 104 games43% · 354 games
RubickAstral
Rubick
50% · 77 games
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed22:42
Level UP 50%KZ TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on Level UP — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreFocus
57% · 68 games44% · 116 games
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
47% · 84 games39% · 27 games
PudgeSkyLark
Pudge
Pangolier
PangolierBor@nija
59% · 217 games46% · 94 games
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Keeper of the Light
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
64% · 76 games41% · 91 game
MuertaAstral
Muerta
45% · 117 games
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 51%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3