?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
41%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
55%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
30%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
27%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 9 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 7 games
14%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
pJonn · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
273 picks · 440 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
235 picks · 327 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
233 picks · 114 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
224 picks · 330 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 428 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
205 picks · 178 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
203 picks · 538 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
199 picks · 269 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:42
KZ TEAM 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 57:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaOtaker
47% · 71 game48% · 111 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSupream^
56% · 83 games53% · 50 games
MarspJonn
Mars
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
38% · 78 games50% · 74 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Muerta
MuertaAstral
49% · 83 games53% · 113 games
Pugnaaik
Pugna
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
54% · 82 games52% · 49 games
Lionrue
Lion
Game 2prediction correct49:34
KZ TEAM 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 52:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidOtaker
49% · 35 games47% · 82 games
LunaSatanic
Luna
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSupream^
50% · 150 games51% · 107 games
Puckerase
Puck
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSsaSpartan
52% · 252 games53% · 85 games
Dragon KnightpJonn
Dragon Knight
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSkyLark
52% · 34 games47% · 79 games
Ancient Apparitionrue
Ancient Apparition
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAstral
55% · 118 games45% · 236 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct35:19
KZ TEAM 54%Yellow Submarine 46%
The model gave 54% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenOtaker
54% · 150 games49% · 193 games
Puckerase
Puck
Doom
DoomSkyLark
47% · 186 games51% · 132 games
MuertaSatanic
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
59% · 185 games45% · 94 games
MarspJonn
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixAstral
47% · 208 games49% · 162 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
53% · 143 games46% · 291 game
Tuskaik
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 60%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3