Global Esports Games 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Казахстанwin 2:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Малайзияloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Казахстан
No games played over 6 months.
Малайзия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
272 picks · 440 bans
Dark Willow
235 picks · 114 bans
Muerta
235 picks · 327 bans
Phoenix
223 picks · 326 bans
Treant Protector
218 picks · 440 bans
Tusk
205 picks · 173 bans
Kunkka
204 picks · 541 bans
Centaur Warrunner
195 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Казахстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Малайзия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Казахстан 33%Малайзия 67%
The model gave 67% on Малайзия — the game was taken by Казахстан.
Game 2prediction correct
Казахстан 33%Малайзия 67%
The model gave 67% on Малайзия — the game was taken by Малайзия.
Game 3prediction missed
Казахстан 33%Малайзия 67%
The model gave 67% on Малайзия — the game was taken by Казахстан.
Model check result
Model favoriteМалайзия · 67%
Series resultКазахстан 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3