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ESSENCE I · BO5
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 3:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 3:0
1w Teamloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 31 game
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 19 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 19 games
63%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 34 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 33 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 31 game
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 26 games
46%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 24 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 23 games
52%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
513 picks · 301 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 578 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 353 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
431 picks · 333 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 324 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
352 picks · 191 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
347 picks · 845 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 849 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:13
PARIVISION 71%1w Team 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 36:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
54% · 65 games50% · 114 games
Lunav1olent-
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 262 games48% · 386 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
54% · 239 games57% · 118 games
Largoмистер мораль
Largo
Enchantress
Enchantress9Class
43% · 143 games50% · 220 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
45% · 248 games47% · 119 games
VenomancerRein
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct21:9
PARIVISION 74%1w Team 26%
The model gave 74% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
50% · 97 games50% · 138 games
Timbersawмистер мораль
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 278 games48% · 175 games
Bristlebackv1olent-
Bristleback
Largo
LargoNoticed
64% · 81 game41% · 216 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Enchantress
Enchantress9Class
50% · 145 games48% · 61 game
Techiesswedenstrong
Techies
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
51% · 30 games49% · 41 game
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct22:10
PARIVISION 72%1w Team 28%
The model gave 72% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSatanic
51% · 76 games51% · 107 games
Lunav1olent-
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
48% · 280 games50% · 331 game
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
60% · 282 games43% · 205 games
Underlordмистер мораль
Underlord
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
50% · 48 games49% · 157 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
50% · 275 games49% · 161 game
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 85%
Series resultPARIVISION 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3