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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 15 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 12 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
天命 · 12 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Chalice · 10 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 9 games
89%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
天命 · 8 games
38%

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 29 games
62%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 24 games
54%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 22 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
dyrachyo · 20 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
tOfu · 20 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
dyrachyo · 20 games
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
272 picks · 438 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
235 picks · 114 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
235 picks · 327 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
223 picks · 324 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 440 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
205 picks · 173 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
204 picks · 541 bans
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
195 picks · 268 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:46
Azure Ray 38%Gaimin Gladiators 62%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalou
44% · 47 games53% · 20 games
SlardarQuinn
Slardar
Mars
MarsXxs
45% · 46 games44% · 56 games
Weaverdyrachyo
Weaver
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXm
47% · 131 game56% · 160 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
38% · 122 games60% · 67 games
GyrocoptertOfu
Gyrocopter
Clockwerk
Clockwerk天命
55% · 119 games53% · 162 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct11:33
Azure Ray 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlou
58% · 196 games45% · 76 games
Alchemistdyrachyo
Alchemist
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXm
51% · 311 games49% · 116 games
TimbersawAce
Timbersaw
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
56% · 90 games46% · 90 games
InvokerQuinn
Invoker
Lion
LionXinQ
47% · 104 games49% · 444 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden天命
48% · 236 games51% · 211 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 69%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2