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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Rein · 7 games
86%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 6 games
83%
Rubick
Rubick
emptiness · 6 games
33%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 8 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 8 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 7 games
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 7 games
14%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 6 games
17%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
pJonn · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
272 picks · 435 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
234 picks · 326 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
233 picks · 113 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
220 picks · 324 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 442 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
204 picks · 171 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
203 picks · 539 bans
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 406 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength62% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:27
SIBE Team 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingnesfeer
49% · 255 games51% · 213 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritряф^^
49% · 296 games54% · 262 games
Primal BeastpJonn
Primal Beast
Abaddon
Abaddonklassnokruto
37% · 40 games59% · 120 games
Puckerase
Puck
Enchantress
Enchantressemptiness
51% · 243 games53% · 150 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
Dark Willow
Dark WillowRein
47% · 178 games46% · 267 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed46:28
SIBE Team 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistnesfeer
53% · 86 games49% · 49 games
LunaSatanic
Luna
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightряф^^
45% · 124 games55% · 253 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Doom
Doomklassnokruto
44% · 227 games49% · 74 games
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRein
48% · 71 game51% · 81 game
Grimstrokerue
Grimstroke
Lion
Lionemptiness
48% · 79 games58% · 130 games
Treant Protectoraik
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct32:16
SIBE Team 50%Yellow Submarine 50%
The model gave 50% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 46:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightряф^^
49% · 107 games48% · 191 game
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Lifestealer
Lifestealernesfeer
58% · 72 games46% · 29 games
ViperpJonn
Viper
Doom
Doomklassnokruto
54% · 173 games46% · 95 games
Kunkkaerase
Kunkka
Snapfire
Snapfireemptiness
51% · 198 games47% · 92 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRein
56% · 55 games46% · 198 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 53%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3