?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 15 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 11 games
100%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 11 games
91%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 10 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 9 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
ATF · 8 games
63%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Lycan
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
79%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
Nisha · 13 games
54%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 13 games
85%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Nisha · 12 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
iNSaNiA · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
275 picks · 434 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
233 picks · 326 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
232 picks · 114 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
220 picks · 324 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
219 picks · 446 bans
57%
Kunkka
Kunkka
203 picks · 536 bans
60%
Tusk
Tusk
201 picks · 170 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
193 picks · 267 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:19
Team Falcons 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
54% · 89 games46% · 108 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightATF
54% · 64 games56% · 11 games
HuskarNisha
Huskar
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
52% · 36 games50% · 44 games
VisageSabeRLight-
Visage
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
53% · 56 games41% · 149 games
SilenceriNSaNiA
Silencer
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
45% · 147 games58% · 80 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct23:46
Team Falcons 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
47% · 83 games50% · 100 games
LeshracmiCKe
Leshrac
Tusk
TuskMalr1ne
47% · 234 games45% · 57 games
WindrangerNisha
Windranger
Viper
ViperATF
47% · 32 games58% · 14 games
OmniknightSabeRLight-
Omniknight
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
42% · 81 game62% · 191 game
Nature's ProphetBoxi
Nature's Prophet
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSneyking
47% · 29 games57% · 97 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct10:25
Team Falcons 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
70% · 22 games46% · 102 games
BloodseekermiCKe
Bloodseeker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterATF
44% · 64 games56% · 68 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
52% · 279 games50% · 28 games
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Night Stalker
Weaver
WeaverCr1t-
45% · 38 games52% · 181 game
Nature's ProphetBoxi
Nature's Prophet
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSneyking
52% · 39 games35% · 63 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3