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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Fbz · 15 games
73%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
31%
Batrider
Batridersignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
27%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Fbz · 11 games
55%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Lycan
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
79%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
Nisha · 13 games
54%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 13 games
85%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Nisha · 12 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
iNSaNiA · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
274 picks · 434 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
232 picks · 325 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
231 picks · 114 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
220 picks · 323 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
220 picks · 449 bans
58%
Kunkka
Kunkka
203 picks · 534 bans
60%
Tusk
Tusk
201 picks · 169 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
193 picks · 267 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:50
Team Secret 39%Team Liquid 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallis
49% · 113 games58% · 107 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Mars
MarsBOOM
49% · 108 games55% · 244 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerMidOne
39% · 84 games56% · 45 games
VisageSabeRLight-
Visage
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPuppey
50% · 175 games51% · 42 games
LichiNSaNiA
Lich
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanyamich
42% · 11 games44% · 53 games
LionBoxi
Lion
Game 2prediction correct19:36
Team Secret 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
48% · 108 games52% · 55 games
SlarkmiCKe
Slark
Puck
PuckMidOne
49% · 96 games46% · 107 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Razor
RazorCrystallis
54% · 20 games58% · 21 game
SlardarSabeRLight-
Slardar
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPuppey
63% · 12 games48% · 89 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeyamich
56% · 118 games46% · 82 games
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2