European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Yellow Submarine
Dark Willow
rue · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 8 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 7 games
Muertaoften banned
rue · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 6 games
Tusk
aik · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
rue · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
273 picks · 435 bans
Dark Willow
232 picks · 113 bans
Muerta
230 picks · 325 bans
Phoenix
220 picks · 323 bans
Treant Protector
220 picks · 451 bans
Kunkka
202 picks · 533 bans
Tusk
199 picks · 169 bans
Centaur Warrunner
193 picks · 264 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:33
Klim Sani4 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:14:26.
Game 2prediction correct35:27
Klim Sani4 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:24.
Game 3prediction correct11:36
Klim Sani4 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 51%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3